The Global Hydrogen Review 2026 report, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in June, changes the tone of the conversation about hydrogen. In previous editions, the focus was on decarbonization targets and cost curves. In 2026, the center of the debate has shifted: the fragility of the global supply chains that support fertilizers, methanol, and hydrogen-derived fuels, and the role that low-emission sources can play in reducing this exposure.
The trigger was the conflict in the Middle East. The region accounts for about one-sixth of the world's hydrogen production, more than 10% of global refining capacity and the production of ammonia and urea, and nearly 17% of methanol production. When part of this infrastructure shuts down, the shock is not geographically contained. According to the IEA, the region accounts for more than a quarter of global ammonia trade, almost 40% of urea trade, and practically half of methanol trade.
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz and its cascading effects.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz interrupted the flow of ammonia, urea, and sulfur, inputs that sustain fertilizer production worldwide. The result was quickly reflected in prices: between January and May 2026, the price of urea doubled on the international market. Refineries and petrochemical complexes outside the Persian Gulf were also affected, which amplified the shortage of refined products and chemicals in general.
The reliance on imported natural gas from the Middle East exacerbates the problem in specific regions. About a quarter of ammonia production in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan uses gas imported from the region, making these markets particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
Food safety under pressure
The most sensitive point in the report is the connection between hydrogen and food security. Nitrogen fertilizers depend directly on ammonia, and ammonia depends on hydrogen. When the chain is disrupted, the effect reaches the crops.
The IEA lists countries that are particularly exposed because they depend almost entirely on imports:
- Morocco, which supplies all its ammonia needs through imports, 40% of which come from the Middle East.
- Brazil, Australia, South Africa, and Thailand import between 40% and 85% of the urea they consume, with the Middle East also being a significant source.
In the Brazilian case, the exposure is well-known within the sector. Historically, the country imports almost 80% of its phosphate fertilizers, more than 80% of its nitrogen fertilizers, and more than 90% of its potassium fertilizers. Virtually all the urea consumed domestically comes from abroad. Petrobras resumed full operation of ammonia and urea plants in Sergipe and Bahia in 2026, in addition to the ANSA unit in Paraná, as part of a US$1 billion investment plan until 2030 aimed at supplying approximately 20% of domestic demand. The National Fertilizer Plan has a stated goal of reducing external dependence from 85% to 50% by 2050, a long-term horizon given the urgency imposed by the current scenario.
Diversification as an energy security strategy
Given this scenario, the IEA positions low-emission hydrogen as a diversification tool, not as an immediate solution. The logic is straightforward: using electrolysis instead of gas or coal to produce fertilizers, methanol, and fuels for marine and aviation transport expands the number of available energy sources and reduces dependence on a limited set of suppliers.
This diversification operates on two complementary fronts:
- Diversification of origin, by replacing imported fossil fuels with domestic production based on electrolysis.
- Diversification of routes, by expanding the number of global suppliers of hydrogen and its derivatives, which are currently concentrated in a few regions.
The report itself, however, is cautious about the pace. Global low-emission hydrogen production currently totals less than 1 million tons per year, compared to a global hydrogen demand that exceeded 100 million tons in 2025. The volume of announced projects with a real chance of becoming operational by 2030 has shrunk to about 6 million tons, a result of delays in final investment decisions. Two-thirds of this potential production that is at risk of not materializing is concentrated in Europe, North America, and Latin America.
What does this mean for those who follow the sector?
For companies and governments planning for the next decade of hydrogen, the 2026 report leaves three practical signals:
- Diversification is no longer just an environmental argument; it has become directly integrated into the energy and food security agenda.
- The decision window is short: the IEA estimates that a large portion of the projects announced today will lose the chance to operate by 2030 if final investment decisions are not made by early 2027.
- Sectors with established hydrogen use, such as refining, ammonia and methanol production, are the fastest entry points for low-emission hydrogen because they already have infrastructure, known demand, and structured supply chains.
The crisis in the Middle East served as a stress test for a system already known for its geographic concentration. The IEA report confirms this diagnosis, but also points to a way forward: expanding the production base of hydrogen and its derivatives outside the regions currently most exposed is simultaneously a strategy for energy and food security and industrial resilience.
References
- IEA (2026), Global Hydrogen Review 2026, International Energy Agency, Paris.
- S&P Global Commodity Insights, coverage on the resumption of Petrobras' fertilizer plants (January 2026).
- S&P Global Commodity Insights, data on fertilizer imports in Brazil (2025).
