For more than two years, low-carbon hydrogen in Brazil has faced a curious situation. The country had approved legislation, announced billion-dollar projects, and international recognition as a potentially competitive supplier, but lacked the operational rules that would allow an investor to transform intention into a contract. This gap began to be closed with Decree No. 13,096, of August 12, 2026, which regulates Law No. 14,948/2024, the basis of the legal framework, and Law No. 14,990/2024, which created the PHBC (Program for the Development of Low-Carbon Hydrogen).
The text also changes the logic of incentives. Public support will now depend on compliance with environmental, technological, industrial, and economic requirements, as well as the effective implementation and operation of the projects.
Why regulation was the missing link.
For projects in advanced stages, the delay had a concrete cost. According to ABIHV (Brazilian Association of Hotel, Wine and Beverage Industries), the delay in regulation affected the pace of investments, since the final investment decision requires complex steps such as licensing, infrastructure definition and economic viability, as well as clarity on rules, incentives and certification. The Pecém Complex illustrates the size of what is at stake: six pre-contracts total R$ 63 billion and an estimated production of 4.2 million tons per year, with FIDs (Financial Incentive Developments) planned for the first half of 2027.
The international context reinforces the urgency. According to the IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2026, more than 100 GW of announced electrolysis capacity could miss the chance to operate by 2030 if investment decisions are not made by the end of 2027. In other words, the window for converting projects into assets is narrow, and regulatory predictability has become a key factor in the competition between countries for capital.
The four regulated pillars
The decree details the operation of four complementary instruments:
- The National Low-Carbon Hydrogen Policy, which organizes governance and guidelines for the different technological routes;
- The Brazilian Hydrogen Certification System (SBCH2), responsible for verifying the intensity of emissions;
- Rehidro, a special tax incentive regime for the implementation phase;
- PHBC, a program of tax credits granted through a competitive procedure.
Furthermore, the text establishes the responsibilities of ANP, CCEE, and Inmetro in this new market.
Rehidro makes the benefit conditional on delivery.
The Rehidro program allows for the suspension of PIS/Pasep and Cofins taxes on goods and services destined for eligible projects. However, the suspension only becomes a zero tax rate when the project proves it meets the conditions of the decree; otherwise, the taxes must be collected with legal surcharges. Among the required counterpart measures are:
- certification of hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel;
- Allocation of at least 1% of the total investment to sustainable development projects linked to the energy transition, such as water security, access to energy, and the recovery of degraded areas;
- A minimum investment of 1% in research, development, and innovation;
- compliance with minimum percentages of national content.
National content and the electrolyzer supply chain
For the equipment industry, the most sensitive point lies in the local content indices. For electrolysis systems and their electrolyzers, the minimum is 15%; other production routes require 40%, and transport and distribution materials, as well as certain services, reach 60%. Exemption is possible when it is demonstrated that there is no national equivalent or that domestic supply is insufficient.
The lower percentage for electrolysis reflects the reality of the global market. According to the IEA, China concentrates 60% of the world's manufacturing capacity for electrolyzers, compared to 20% in Europe and 10% in the United States. Therefore, the rule opens up opportunities to combine imported technology with domestic services, assembly, and components, which tends to guide the strategy of suppliers operating in the country.
Certification as a market passport
The SBCH2 stipulates that emission intensity be calculated through life cycle analysis, with a limit of 7 kg of CO₂ equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen for classification as low emission. Until 2030, the methodology considers emissions up to the production gate. The system also provides for a national registry of certificates, traceability, and mechanisms against double counting.
In practice, certification defines which volumes can access the policy instruments. For export-oriented projects, it will also be the basis for dialogue with the requirements of international buyers.
PHBC and the dispute over tax credits
The PHBC (Program for the Promotion of Tax Credits) foresees up to R$ 18.3 billion in tax credits between 2030 and 2034, an amount that serves as a ceiling and depends on fiscal targets and the Annual Budget Law. The granting of these credits will be preceded by a competitive procedure conducted by the Ministry of Finance, with the lowest credit requested per product unit as the minimum judging criterion.
The design also prioritizes industrial applications. Fertilizers, steelmaking, cement, chemicals, petrochemicals, and heavy transport have priority, with preference given to projects that use hydrogen in their own process. Participants must submit schedules with milestones such as FID (Financial Incentive Development), licensing, and commercial operation, and, after awarding the contract, guarantees of up to 10% of the credit granted. The first auction is scheduled for January 2027, with public consultation expected in November.
What changes for the market
Cost challenges remain; however, the main uncertainty pointed out by investors has diminished. The first green hydrogen with an invoice in the country came from a White Martins plant in Jacareí (SP), with a capacity of 5 MW and an annual production of 800 tons for the glass industry, a sign that local consumption models are already sustainable.
The next step is scaling up. With rules defined for certification, incentives, and competition for resources, the coming months, between the PHBC public consultation and the expected FIDs for 2027, should show how much of Brazil's potential translates into installed capacity.
References
- BRASIL. Decreto nº 13.096, de 12 de agosto de 2026. Diário Oficial da União, Seção 1, 13 ago. 2026.
- AGÊNCIA GOV / MINISTÉRIO DA FAZENDA. Decreto do hidrogênio de baixa emissão de carbono marca nova etapa em regulamentação. 22 set. 2026.
- O POVO. Cinco anos após criação do hub de hidrogênio verde no Ceará, primeira nota fiscal é emitida no Sudeste. 7 set. 2026.
- IEA. Global Hydrogen Review 2026. Paris, 2026.
- ARGUS MEDIA. Green H2 electrolyser sector enters consolidation: IEA. 2026.
- AGROLINK / ABIFINA. Hidrogênio de baixa emissão de carbono: regulamentação do marco legal. Ago. 2026.
- O LIBERAL. Lula publica decreto com Política Nacional do Hidrogênio de Baixa Emissão de Carbono. Ago. 2026.
- PROMON ENGENHARIA. Leilão do PHBC pode impulsionar o mercado de hidrogênio de baixo carbono no Brasil. 2026.
