The world is redesigning its energy matrix, and green hydrogen, e-methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are at the heart of this transition. For Brazil, the combination of abundant renewable energy, available land, and a privileged logistical position creates a rare window of opportunity: to become a global supplier of these inputs before other countries consolidate their leadership.
The numbers already reflect this trend. According to industry surveys, approximately R$ 454 billion in investments have been announced for green hydrogen projects in the country, and seven industrial-scale initiatives, totaling R$ 63 billion, are expected to reach the final investment decision (FID) stage by 2026.
The Pecém hub and the race for green ammonia.
The Pecém Industrial and Port Complex in Ceará has established itself as Brazil's main hub for green hydrogen. Fortescue leads the group, with an estimated investment of between R$18 and R$20 billion to produce 170,000 tons of hydrogen per year starting in 2029, mostly converted into green ammonia for export. Alongside Fortescue, Qair, Casa dos Ventos, FRV, and Voltalia have additional projects focused on the same model: electrolysis using wind and solar energy, followed by conversion into ammonia to enable large-scale maritime transport.
Outside the coastal region of Ceará, Atlas Agro plans to invest R$ 6 billion in Uberaba (MG), with 300 MW of electrolysis capacity to produce 530,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizers annually, replacing imports and reducing the external dependence of Brazilian agribusiness.
The competitiveness goal is ambitious: to achieve a production cost of US$1.47 per kilogram of hydrogen by 2030, a level that would place Brazil among the few countries capable of exporting the input at globally competitive prices.
E-methanol: the first national factory
While hydrogen production advances on an industrial scale, e-methanol is taking its first commercial steps in the country. European Energy, through its GoVerde brand, announced the first e-methanol plant in Brazil, located in the Suape Complex (PE), with an investment of R$ 2 billion. The plant will have an initial capacity of 300 tons per day between 2027 and 2028, with a phased expansion plan up to 900 tons per day in 2032.
The product is primarily aimed at export, meeting the growing demand from maritime and aviation transport in Europe and North America, sectors that are seeking low-carbon alternatives to meet increasingly stringent regulatory targets.
SAF: regulation in motion
In Brazil, sustainable aviation fuel is advancing under ProBioQAV, a program created by the Future Fuel Law. The decree regulating the specific rules of the sector is in its final stages of processing, with the expectation that, starting in 2027, airlines will need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 1% through the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Today, Petrobras concentrates 92% of the national supply of SAF (sugar-based aioli), produced at the Duque de Caxias Refinery (Reduc) in Rio de Janeiro, with plans to expand to other units. Acelen, in turn, is developing an alternative route using macaúba, a plant native to the Brazilian Cerrado, which expands the base of raw materials available for local production.
Internationally, the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation already requires a minimum of 2% SAF (synthetic kerosene) in flights departing from the European Union by 2025, progressively increasing to 70% by 2050, with a specific sub-target for synthetic e-fuels. Germany, Japan, and India are following a similar path, each with its own blending mandates. Even so, SAF represents only 0.53% of global aviation kerosene consumption, highlighting the size of the market to be captured.
The challenges that still hinder scaling.
Despite the volume of announcements, transforming projects into actual production faces concrete obstacles:
- Port and electricity transmission infrastructure is still insufficient to meet the simultaneous demand of multiple large-scale projects.
- The absence of a definitive regulatory framework for low-carbon hydrogen creates uncertainty for funders and investors.
- The cost of synthetic e-kerosene is currently estimated to be up to 13 times the value of fossil kerosene, according to Argus data from November 2025.
- The need for long-term contracts (offtake agreements) that guarantee predictable demand is necessary to make plant financing viable.
The path ahead
To transform potential into effective leadership, industry experts point to three priority areas:
- Quick definition of the national regulatory framework for low-carbon hydrogen, with clear rules on certification and traceability.
- Coordinated expansion of transmission infrastructure and ports, ensuring that available renewable energy does not lack an outlet.
- International commercial coordination to secure purchase agreements that support investment in large-scale plants.
Brazil possesses rare natural conditions to become a leading producer of hydrogen, e-methanol, and SAF (sugar-based fuels). The combination of abundant clean energy, productive land, and proximity to strategic shipping routes puts the country in a prominent position. However, this window of opportunity will not remain open indefinitely: the next two or three years will determine whether Brazil converts its potential into signed export contracts or watches other markets advance first.
