Green hydrogen is reshaping the chemical and fertilizer industries, transforming production chains and accelerating decarbonization. It is emerging as a catalyst for change that goes far beyond the exchange of energy inputs. It involves a profound reconfiguration of the production chains that support the chemical sector and, crucially, the fertilizer industry.
The imperative of industrial decarbonization
The push for decarbonization is no longer rhetoric. Ammonia and fertilizer production accounts for about 2.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, roughly 2.6 gigatons of carbon per year. Meanwhile, the chemical industry consumes approximately 15% of the energy used by industrial activity in developed economies. This picture makes it clear that without radical innovation, there will be no future competitiveness.
Beyond the environmental agenda, there's also an economic factor at play. Carbon pricing and environmental regulations are already shaping markets and defining competitive standards. Companies that anticipate this transition will have an advantage in an environment increasingly guided by ESG criteria.
The green hydrogen revolution
The contrast between gray and green hydrogen is stark. The former, derived from natural gas, emits about 10 tons of CO₂ per ton produced. The latter, obtained by electrolyzing water with renewable energy, eliminates these direct emissions.
This process can be performed using different technologies, such as alkaline electrolysis or proton exchange membrane (PEM). But the big leap forward lies in integrating it with the Haber-Bosch process, the basis of global ammonia production. Maintaining the efficiency of a centuries-old method without generating carbon paves the way for a new era of fertilizers.
Recent advances, such as pressure control systems that track variations in renewable energy, make this operation more viable. In practice, this means industrial plants that adjust their production according to the availability of sunlight and wind, something that was not possible until recently.
Brazil: epicenter of transformation
Few countries have the advantages that Brazil offers. Our electricity grid is almost 90% renewable and connected nationwide, ensuring scale and stability. Studies by the National Council for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (CNPEM) confirm that it is possible to expand green hydrogen production without compromising energy security.
It's not just a matter of projection. Projects are already underway. Unigel, in partnership with Thyssenkrupp Nucera, is investing US$1.5 billion in Camaçari, Bahia, in the country's first large green hydrogen plant. Atlas Agro is following suit in Uberaba, Minas Gerais, with an investment of US$850 million in green fertilizers.
Direct impact on agribusiness
Brazil's dependence on fertilizer imports, which currently hovers around 90%, poses a strategic risk. The conflict in Ukraine has exposed this vulnerability. Local production of green fertilizers, therefore, emerges not only as an economic opportunity but also as a matter of sovereignty.
Companies like Yara are already testing alternatives, producing ammonia from biomethane in Cubatão, São Paulo, with emissions reductions of up to 75%. This is a clear example of the potential of the bioeconomy when integrated with hydrogen.
Economic and logistical challenges
Cost remains a major sticking point. Currently, green hydrogen ranges between US$4 and US$12 per kilogram, but this price is expected to drop to less than US$2 by 2030. In Brazil, this target could be reached sooner, thanks to the low cost of renewable energy.
Logistics, however, remains a significant barrier. Hydrogen requires compression or liquefaction, expensive and energy-intensive processes. One solution is conversion to ammonia, which is simpler to transport but increases the final cost. Discussion is also advancing on international certifications for "green hydrogen," which are crucial to securing export markets.
Conclusion: A New Industrial Era
The global green hydrogen market is expected to jump from US$8.7 billion in 2024 to nearly US$200 billion in 2034, growing at over 40% annually. Brazil already has more than 100 announced projects, with investments exceeding R$450 billion.
The combination of falling costs, favorable regulation, and growing demand opens a unique window of opportunity. If investments in technology, infrastructure, and regulation are coordinated, Brazil can not only meet its own demand but also establish itself as an exporter of clean energy solutions.
Green hydrogen is no longer a detail on the sustainability agenda. It's key to repositioning entire sectors of the economy. And the next five to ten years will be decisive in determining who will lead this race.
