The green hydrogen tipping point
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a watershed moment for the low-carbon economy. At the center of this transformation is green hydrogen, which has gone from being a distant promise to a strategic energy vector capable of decarbonizing entire industrial sectors and redesigning value chains. For leaders and decision-makers in the B2B space, understanding the dynamics of this market is no longer an option, but a necessity to ensure competitiveness and growth.
Global market outlook: Growth and realignment
The global green hydrogen market is on a rapid growth trajectory. Some projections indicate that the sector could surpass the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by 2030, reaching a value of US$1.4 trillion per year by 2050. Although estimates vary, consultancies such as Grand View Research predict that the market should reach approximately US$60 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of close to 40%.
This movement is driven by a combination of factors:
- Pressure for Decarbonization: The urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement forces heavy industries (steel, cement, chemicals) and transportation (aviation, maritime) to seek real alternatives to fossil fuels.
- Energy Security: Recent geopolitical instability has exposed the fragility of dependence on fossil fuels, accelerating the search for local energy sources.
- Falling Costs: The continued reduction in the cost of renewable energy (solar and wind) and efficiency gains in electrolyzers are making green hydrogen more economically competitive.
Despite the optimism, the sector faces its challenges. The transition from pilot projects to industrial-scale operations is a complex step, requiring intensive capital, infrastructure, and clear regulatory alignment.
The brazilian scenario: From advantage to leadership
Brazil is emerging as one of the most promising players in the race for green hydrogen. The country boasts a rare combination of advantages:
- Clean Electrical Matrix: With more than 80% of its electricity coming from renewable sources, Brazil can produce hydrogen with one of the smallest carbon footprints in the world.
- Natural Resources: The abundance of sun, wind and water, especially in the Northeast, creates the perfect environment for large-scale production.
- Geographical Position: Its proximity to Europe and the United States, combined with an already established port infrastructure, makes Brazil a strong candidate to become a major exporter.
The Brazilian government has been moving to capitalize on this potential. The enactment of Law No. 14,948/2024 created the Hydrogen Legal Framework and the Special Incentive Regime (Rehidro), which provides tax exemptions for equipment and projects starting in January 2025. Furthermore, Law No. 14,990/2024 established the Low-Carbon Hydrogen Development Program (PHBC), with incentives that could reach R$18.3 billion.
These milestones are attracting significant investment. Brazil already has more than 100 hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives projects announced, with investments exceeding R$450 billion. Large-scale initiatives, such as the Port of Pecém in Ceará, aim to transform the state into a global hub.
Technological innovations: The key to competitiveness
The viability of green hydrogen depends directly on technological innovation, especially in electrolysis—the process that uses electricity to break down water molecules. Advances are focused on three fronts:
- Alkaline Electrolysis (AEL): It is the most mature and cheapest technology, good for large-scale production, but with less flexibility.
- Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysis (PEM): More compact and agile, it responds well to variations in sources such as solar and wind, but uses more expensive materials.
- Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOEC): It operates at high temperatures and offers greater efficiency. It's a great option for industries that generate waste heat.
The technology race aims to reduce the cost of electrolyzers, increase their efficiency and lifespan, and reduce dependence on rare earth metals. Simulations and artificial intelligence are already being used to optimize plant design and operation, accelerating the learning curve.
Comparative analysis: International competition
Brazil is not alone in this race. Governments around the world are implementing aggressive policies to attract capital.
- United States: The Inflation Reduction Act offers a tax credit of up to $3 per kilogram of clean hydrogen, which could make the American product one of the cheapest on the planet. The IRA also provides investment credits of up to 30% for installations.
- European Union: With initiatives such as the EU Hydrogen Bank and the RED III directive, the EU is creating a regulated market and offering subsidies for projects, aiming for the goal of producing 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030.
- Saudi Arabia: The country is developing the world's largest green hydrogen project in NEOM, an investment of US$8.4 billion to produce 650 tons per day from 2026, positioning itself as a new leader in clean energy.
This competition requires Brazil to be agile in regulating and strategic in attracting investment. The focus cannot be solely on exporting the commodity (green hydrogen or ammonia), but rather on developing a complete value chain, including the local production of green steel, fertilizers, and synthetic fuels. If you would like to better understand the opportunities for green steel production, read our article: Green Hydrogen in the Brazilian Steel Industry: A R$454 Billion Opportunity.
Challenges and opportunities for the B2B sector
The transition to a hydrogen economy brings clear challenges and opportunities for companies:
| Strategic Challenges | Opportunities for B2B Companies |
| Initial Cost: Investment in production, storage and transportation is still high. | New Business Models: Solutions such as “Hydrogen-as-a-Service”, engineering consultancy and project structuring. |
| Infrastructure: Large-scale gas pipelines, terminals and storage systems need to be built. | Supply Chain Leadership: Manufacturing of electrolyzers, fuel cells, tanks and other components. |
| Regulatory Uncertainty: Delays in defining market standards and rules may postpone investments. | Competitive Advantage: Companies that adopt green H2 early can reduce their carbon footprint and access new markets. |
| Talent Shortage: The demand for engineers, chemists and energy project managers is already a reality. | People Development: Partnerships with universities to train the next generation of specialists. |
The time to act is now
For Brazil, 2025 is a window of opportunity to transform potential into leadership. For B2B companies, the time to evaluate, plan, and invest is now.
The combination of incentives, technological advances, and pressure for decarbonization creates a fertile environment for growth. Organizations that position themselves intelligently—whether as producers, consumers, or facilitators—will be investing not just in a new fuel, but in the future of the industry. The question is no longer whether green hydrogen will be a pillar of the economy, but who will be the leaders who will build that future.
